More on Didier Sornette
Was reading this article titled Finite-time singularity in the dynamics of the world population, economic and financial indices . In plain words, it says:
- Physical parameters cannot support unlimited growth to infinity (e.g. exponential or power-law). Such a growth trend indicates some pending catastrophic event to bring it down to reasonable level. This is what happens to the stock market before a crash.
- These folks have a theory predicting when the crash will happens (a probability, of course), based on previous data.
- They noticed that world population and financial market indices have the same trend as the above scenario.
- Their theory predicts that the crash happens in year 2052.
This is pretty dark stuff. But all the arguments are there. For example, the current slowing of population growth does not sound more effective in averting the crash than, say, driving towards a cliff at 60 mph and at the last second think it would be okay just because you have started braking.
I find one of the possible scenarios most illuminating: Possible scenarios involve a systematic development of terrorism and the segregation of mankind into at least two groups, a minority of wealthy communities hiding behind fortresses from the crowd of “barbarians” roaming outside." Considering what's on the news for the past few years, that sounds very likely to be the case ... (On the other hand, following this vein of logic, G.W. Bush may be exonerated from whatever shit that he intentionally or unintentionally got the country into. He could be the the last straw that broke the camel's back.)
